Oregon’s population is growing, but at a slower pace than past decades

Oregon’s population ticked up slightly last year, according to separate estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and from Portland State University.

Census data released Thursday shows Oregon’s population grew by a modest 18,718 to 4.27 million people from July 2023 to July 2024. Researchers at Portland State had similar findings but estimated the population only grew by 13,358. Both figures represent an increase of less than 0.5%.

The U.S. Census figures help guide federal funding for certain programs and determine whether states get additional congressional seats. Oregon policymakers mostly use PSU’s numbers when drafting legislation or as a foundation for other official state business.

“One of the key things related to population for Oregon,” State Employment Economist Grail Krumenauer said, “is that it’s been the primary way we’ve grown our labor force over the past few decades.”

Oregon has seen mostly steady population growth over the last century, fueled in part by economic booms in the 1970s and 90s. But the pace of growth has stalled over the last few years, putting pressure on employers who rely on talent moving into the state to fill positions. The slow growth has helped create what economists call a tight labor market, both in Oregon and across the country.

“We just wrapped up a period of almost three whole years where, nationally, there were more job openings than there were job seekers or unemployed job seekers,” Krumenauer said. “Meaning, if every single person who was unemployed took a job that was out there, there would still be jobs that were left unfilled. It’s been a little bit looser in Oregon – we have about three unemployed people for every two job openings.”

State numbers indicate all regions of Oregon will see job growth over the next decade. Krumenauer points out that seven of the 15 fastest growing occupations are related to healthcare, an industry that has traditionally relied on what researchers call in-migration – or, more simply, people moving to the state.

Researchers at PSU note that deaths to Oregon residents outnumbered births by nearly 4,000 last year.

“This phenomenon of ‘natural decrease’ means that Oregon has become dependent on net in-migration for population growth,” PSU researchers said in a statement about the data.

According to an analysis of data from multiple state and federal agencies, PSU estimates there was a net migration of around 17,000 new residents to the state.

“In the absence of migration, Oregon’s population would be in decline,” researchers said.