Editor’s note: Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Stay informed with OPB on the presidential race, key congressional battles and other local contests and ballot measures in Oregon and Southwest Washington at opb.org/elections.

Democrats are virtually guaranteed to control the Oregon House and Senate when the dust settles from this year’s election.

The big question is: by how much?

Whether majority Democrats can gain one more seat in each chamber will be a major factor in next year’s legislative session. If the party captures those additional seats, it will command a three-fifths supermajority in the House and Senate. That means Democrats could enact new taxes without a single Republican vote during a session where funding for roads and schools are expected to get major attention.

Related: What you need to know about voting in Oregon and Southwest Washington

“Should both chambers fall into Democrat-controlled supermajorities, the business climate in Oregon would become catastrophic,” House Republicans wrote in a fundraising pitch this summer.

While Republican committees have struggled to raise money at the level of past elections, the party has a backstop in former U.S. Rep. Greg Walden and Nike co-founder Phil Knight. A committee run by Walden, Bring Balance to Salem, has amassed almost $6 million to help GOP candidates win — $4 million of it from Knight, Oregon’s richest person.

Legislative Democrats have been watching that war chest warily, wondering where and how Walden will spend in the final days leading up to Election Day.

“We’re confident Senate Democrats will maintain and expand our strong majority because Oregonians are looking for grounded, serious candidates who share their values and priorities,” said Oliver Muggli, director of the Senate Democratic Leadership Fund, which backs Democratic candidates in the chamber.

Related: Issues important to Oregon voters

While the particulars of legislative races vary by district, there are some near constants this year. As in 2022, Republican candidates are hammering Democrats on public safety and cost of living, Democrats are hammering Republicans on abortion, and everyone is hammering Oregon’s housing crisis.

“We’re talking about the issues that people want to talk about, crime, drugs, the economy and housing and homelessness,” said House Minority Leader Jeff Helfrich, R-Hood River. “Those are the things our candidates want to fix.”

Here’s a look at some races to watch this year.

Related: Listen to 'OPB Politics Now'

Senate

Half of the Senate’s 30 seats are up for election, but most of those are tilted enough in one party’s favor that their outcomes are assured. Just three races are in districts tightly divided enough that money and campaigning could make a difference.

Democrats currently hold a 17-13 majority in the Senate — one seat away from an 18-member and a three-fifths supermajority. They are targeting two seats held by Republicans while hoping to fend off a strong GOP challenge in a third district.

Senate District 5 — The central coast

State Sen. Dick Anderson was one of just three Senate Republicans who didn’t participate in a weekslong legislative walkout in 2023. That means, unlike many of his GOP colleagues, Anderson is still allowed to run for reelection under state law.

Anderson, a retired financier and former Lincoln City mayor, has shown he can work across the aisle with Democrats on issues like housing. He faces off against art store owner and Florence city councilor Jo Beaudreau in a district that stretches from just north of Lincoln City to just south of Coos Bay.

Democrats hold a slight registration advantage over Republicans in this district, and President Joe Biden won here in 2020. But the GOP believes Anderson will prevail this year. That’s bolstered by the fact he had raised and spent far more than Beaudreau as of Monday.

“We’re feeling extremely confident,” said John Swanson, director of The Leadership Fund, a political committee that backs Senate Republicans. “That being said, on the coast, you’ve got to watch for sneaker waves. We’re not taking anything for granted.”

Senate District 25 — Gresham, Fairview and Troutdale

On paper, this race should be an easy win for incumbent Democratic Sen. Chris Gorsek. Democrats in this district just east of Portland have a registration advantage of more than 11 percentage points, and Biden prevailed there by around 15 percentage points four years ago.

But neither of those factors tend to matter much in east Multnomah County, where races for the Legislature and statewide office are often tight. Republicans chalk it up to an electorate wary of “Portland creep,” the threat of big-city issues increasingly spreading eastward.

“East County is a whole different animal than the rest of the county,” said Swanson, the Senate Republican consultant.

Republicans believe they have a real shot at picking off Gorsek with their candidate, Raymond Love. An insurance agent and colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve, Love is attacking Gorsek as an ultra-liberal who is complicit in surging homelessness and disorder.

Republicans say polls show the race is a statistical tie, with Love trailing by less than the margin of error in one September survey. The party argues that east county residents are ready for a change, pointing out the district voted to unseat Multnomah County District Attorney Mike Schmidt this year.

One sign of GOP confidence in the seat: Love had reported more than $680,000 in campaign cash as of Monday, bolstered by $430,000 from Walden’s PAC. That is slightly more than Gorsek and could be key as both parties look to blitz voters with ads.

Gorsek, a college instructor and former Portland police officer, has been in the Legislature for more than a decade, first serving four terms in the House. He is a strong ally of labor unions, but despite a lengthy legislative tenure, doesn’t appear to have built the same margin of safety as other long-time Democratic lawmakers in competitive seats.

Democrats are casting Love as an extremist in the race, pointing to past Facebook comments where he suggested the 2020 election was stolen.

“Sen. Chris Gorsek is a retired police officer and public school teacher who is focused on the issues that matter most to East County,” said Oliver Muggli, who runs the Senate Democratic Leadership Fund, a committee that supports Senate Democrats. “His opponent is an out-of-touch, MAGA, extremist election denier.”

Senate District 27 — Bend

Republicans’ decadeslong dominance in this Central Oregon district could be poised to come to an end this year.

Longtime Sen. Tim Knopp, R-Bend, is unable to run for reelection because of the 2023 Capitol walkout. And after tweaks during redistricting in 2021, a district that was already trending in the Democrats’ direction is seen by many as a sure flip for the party.

Looking to replace Knopp are Democratic nominee Anthony Broadman, an attorney and Bend city councilor, and Republican Michael Summers, a business owner and Redmond school board member.

Broadman has raised nearly double Summers’ total — roughly $755,000 compared to $383,000 as of Monday — and Democrats are confident they will claim a seat they narrowly lost to Knopp in 2020.

If they’re right, the race might be enough to cement an 18-12 supermajority for the party in the Senate.

House

With all 60 districts up for election this year, the House map is more muddled than the Senate’s. Democrats currently hold a 35-25 edge in the chamber. But the party won a host of competitive seats in 2022 that they now have to defend. Democrats would need to expand their lead to 36-24 to attain a three-fifths supermajority.

While there are clear standout races in Salem, Bend, and Happy Valley, plenty of others could hold surprises. As with the Senate, suburbs to the east and south of Portland might prove closer than party registrations would suggest — and a late surge of money into those races suggests Republicans will look to ride voter angst to victory there.

House District 22 — Salem and Woodburn

Republican state Rep. Tracy Cramer flipped this long-Democratic district two years ago in a high-priced race that included a strange turn of events for her opponent. This year, Cramer may face the tightest reelection fight of any GOP lawmaker.

Democrats have tapped Lesly Munoz, an organizer for the Oregon Education Association from Woodburn.

The race has become one of the most expensive legislative contests of the year. With the help of Walden’s Bring Balance to Portland PAC, Cramer had raised nearly $1 million as of Monday, more than double Munoz’s total.

“She’s doing everything she needs to do,” said Helfrich. “She’s running a great race.”

Democrats believe the district amounts to their best opportunity to flip a seat in the House this year. The party has a voter registration advantage of nearly 7%, and Biden prevailed there by 11 percentage points in 2020. Even so, a high proportion of nonaffiliated voters in the district — they outnumber registered Democrats and Republicans combined — makes the outcome harder to predict.

“The people of HD 22 got a bad deal with Tracy Cramer,” said Hannah Howell, executive director of Future PAC, a committee that supports House Democrats. “We’ve seen what happens when the residents of the district mobilize to have their voices heard, and we’re seeing that level of enthusiasm coming out behind Lesly.”

House District 53 – Bend

Another race drawing serious money from both parties, Republicans believe this Bend-area seat is a good chance to add to their number, even though Democrats have a 3-percentage-point registration advantage.

Running for re-election is Democratic state Rep. Emerson Levy, a Bend attorney who won the newly redrawn district in 2022 after decades of Republican control. Levy has built a reputation in Salem as a reasonable moderate — one reason why she has backing from Oregon’s business lobby.

The Republican nominee is Keri Lopez, a Redmond school board member who works with her husband in a homebuilding business and is pledging to fight or lower taxes if elected.

Together, the two women have spent more than $900,000 appealing to central Oregon voters and were nearly dead even on reported fundraising as of Monday, with more than $500,000 apiece.

House District 39 — Happy Valley

The race to fill the seat that opened when Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum left to run for Congress could be a wild card this year. Democrats have a sizable advantage in terms of voter registration, but as with other races on the outskirts of the Portland metro area, the party is counting on a tough race.

The Democratic nominee, April Dobson, is a member of the North Clackamas school board. Republican Aimee Reiner is a former Army reservist who works as a customer service manager at a corporation that manufactures glass bottles.

The race has featured negative attacks, with Republicans dredging up a decades-old mugshot stemming from Dobson’s arrest for shoplifting at the age of 18. House Democrats, meanwhile, are painting Reiner as a MAGA extremist.

House District 21 — Salem

Kevin Mannix was hardly a new name to Salem-ites when he flipped this seat in Republicans’ favor in 2022.

The longtime politico served several terms as a Democratic member of the House in the ‘90s before switching parties and finishing out his tenure as a Republican. In 2002, Mannix was the GOP nominee for governor, losing to Democratic nominee Ted Kulongoski.

Name recognition from that long history helped Mannix, an attorney, make a political comeback two years ago. Democrats are hoping to counteract it with Virginia Stapleton, a Salem city councilor and energetic campaigner attempting to ride the district’s slight Democratic advantage to victory.

Mannix has dominated the money race, and both sides have launched attacks — Mannix over Stapleton’s support for an unpopular Salem payroll tax proposal, Stapleton over Mannix’s stance on abortion and a 2015 state bar complaint.

2 seats in east Multnomah County

As with Gorsek’s seat in the Senate, Republicans believe voter disaffection in Portland’s eastern suburbs play to their advantage. They are putting serious money into a pair of House districts in Gresham and Troutdale currently held by Democrats.

In House District 49, incumbent Democratic Rep. Zach Hudson, a Troutdale teacher, is facing off against businessman Terry Tipsord. A late surge in fundraising had Tipsord dominating the money race in the contest as of Monday.

Next door, in House District 50, Democratic state Rep. Ricki Ruiz is hoping to fend off a challenge from Republican Paul Drechsler, who has also gotten a big cash infusion in the last two weeks.

“Multnomah County is tired of the crime and the drugs,” said Helfrich, who incorrectly claimed that shooting incidents are up in Portland from last year. “The Democrats on the other side don’t have anything to counter that argument.”

House Democrats point out that much of the funding for Republicans in these districts has come from the PAC run by Walden – nearly $300,000 in the case of Tipsord.

“Reps. Ruiz and Hudson have deep ties to their districts and know what families are facing there — unlike the shadowy billionaires who are trying to buy this election,” said Howell. “We know that voters will see through the smokescreen.”