How National Weather Service layoffs could affect ship passages in Oregon

Federal layoffs carried out by the Department of Government Efficiency and hiring freezes continue to hit Oregon as local offices of the National Weather Service are down to about 30% to 40% of their workforce, the Statesman Journal reports. The NWS plays a critical role in monitoring, predicting and delivering expected weather conditions, as well as issuing warnings about potential weather-related dangers. The NWS isn’t just relied on by the general public, but also by the Columbia River Bar Pilots, an organization responsible for helping navigate ships, cargo and crew through the treacherous waters of the Columbia River Bar. Dan Jordan is an administrator for the bar pilots. He joins us to share more on how federal layoffs could affect thousands of ships in the future.

Note: The following transcript was transcribed digitally and validated for accuracy, readability and formatting by an OPB volunteer.

Dave Miller: This is Think Out Loud on OPB. I’m Dave Miller. Staffing at National Weather Service offices in Oregon is down 30% to 40%. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has seen even bigger cuts, close to 60%. As the Statesman Journal recently reported, these reductions could have major impacts in the Northwest. We are likely to have less information or delayed information about snowpack, flood and wildfire dangers.

One specific place where timely and accurate forecasts can be a matter of life and death is the Columbia River Bar. Dan Jordan is the administrator with the Columbia Bar Pilots. They rely on the National Weather Service for information about storms and surf. Dan Jordan joins us now. It’s good to have you on Think Out Loud.

Dan Jordan: Thank you. It’s good to be here.

Miller: Can you just remind us first why the Columbia River Bar is so treacherous?

Jordan: Yeah, it’s a big river in North America meeting the ocean right between two narrow jetties. And the interaction between the ocean conditions and the river conditions can get really large.

Miller: What do Columbia River Bar pilots do?

Jordan: Columbia River Bar pilots board a ship out in the ocean and bring it in across the bar, into the river system, or versa-visa when a ship is sailing, we’ll sail out on the ship and then get off in the ocean.

Miller: Because you and other pilots are the experts on this particular area. These ships have been taken from Malaysia, China or wherever, and they get to this last part of the voyage, and that’s where you step in.

Jordan: That’s exactly right. There are pilots in pretty much every port in the world, because of their expertise in the area. And a big reason to have us here is to protect the infrastructure of the area and the environment. And then of course the efficiency of moving ships for commerce.

Miller: We have a very recent example of what extreme weather there can be like. What happened last week?

Jordan: Yeah, that is a big example. Last week, Monday night, we had a record breaking wave height of 63 feet. That’s a huge wave. The average waves were in the mid-30s.

Miller: 63 feet high waves?

Jordan: Yeah, it’s certainly much too dangerous for a ship to cross in those conditions. That’s where we rely on the Weather Service.

Miller: So what happened?

Jordan: Well, when the weather’s coming, the Weather Service keeps us informed well in advance so we’re not surprised by that kind of weather. That’s their forecasting aspect. And then we communicate with them as it’s coming to get more accurate timing on when it might arrive. We’ll actually suspend commercial traffic on the river when it becomes too dangerous.

Miller: And that’s what happened last week?

Jordan: It is, yes.

Miller: How long was traffic suspended for?

Jordan: It was only about 24 hours on that one. We have had some suspensions [of] three to four days. That’s where it really starts impacting the commercial side of things upriver.

Miller: Because it means nobody can come in or go out?

Jordan: Yeah, that’s correct. And if nobody can sail, if they’re tied to the dock, then that terminal can’t load the next ship. They lose a lot of income and that supports a lot of jobs.

Miller: How would you describe the long-term relationship that you’ve had with folks at the National Weather Service?

Jordan: Well, they’ve supported us for decades. We communicate with them when storms are coming. And we always say it’s fairly easy to stop traffic due to safety, but it’s very difficult to get it moving again because we’re doing that based on commerce. We want to get commerce going, but we don’t wanna do it in a dangerous way. So we’re on the telephone with them frequently with the forecaster in the office, where they’re giving us confidence levels of what the forecasts are and help us make the decisions of when ships should sail or when they shouldn’t.

Miller: That is a level of access to people at the National Weather Service that the rest of us don’t have. We can go on our phones and look at what Apple, Google or whoever has filtered through onto their apps. We can go on to NOAA’s own website and see what people have put there. But you and others can actually call up people in the National Weather Service and talk to them about the latest weather forecast, talk to an actual human?

Jordan: Yeah. We do that frequently when winter storms are coming. They’re extremely valuable to the movement of ships, but safety as well. One thing people don’t think about [with] those kinds of waves is ships going up and down, and the risk of bouncing on the bottom. The weather service helps us with that.

Miller: As I mentioned, staffing at the National Weather Service in Oregon – and there are a couple different offices in the state of Oregon – is down 30% to 40%. This is all very recent. And like a lot of federal agencies, it’s a combination of early retirements, people being let go as probationary employees and other things like that. Have you seen any changes yet in the level of information that’s coming to you?

Jordan: We have not seen any changes yet. And to be quite frank, I’m not up to speed on who was let go, who wasn’t. But they’ve been understaffed for a long time. There may only be two or three people in the forecast office at night, so missing one or two of them is huge.

Miller: Well, what effect could this reduction have? And what are you preparing yourself for, and the other bar pilots and the shippers?

Jordan: Well, the most obvious effect is if we don’t get accurate forecasts, then we’re gonna have to make much more conservative decisions for safety. So there will be longer delays, longer financial impacts upriver. And if we make an incorrect decision, then there is the risk of a ship being lost out on the bar.

Miller: My understanding is that you’re not just getting regular weather reports, you’re also getting aviation forecasts for your helicopters and river level forecasts. Can anyone fill in the gap that might be left by cuts to NOAA and the National Weather Service?

Jordan: I would say no. And the reason I say that is all the data that’s used to create those forecasts comes from Weather Service buoys or wind sensors, lots of equipment supplies that data. So that’s all part of the Weather Service as well.

Miller: I want to turn to shipping traffic while we have you on. What’s it been like in recent weeks?

Jordan: It’s been interesting. I’ll span it out over a few months. It got really busy before the tariffs went into place with shippers wanting to move their goods before they came in place. And now with the tariffs in place, it’s slowed down dramatically.

Miller: The tariffs – the big ones with Canada and Mexico – we only knew for sure that it was going to happen [at] midnight last night. But you’re saying in anticipation of that, in preparation, shippers were quickly just trying to get stuff to move as quickly as possible so it would get into the new country before the tariffs would take effect?

Jordan: That’s certainly the way it turned out. I wouldn’t put it specifically on Canada and Mexico though. So much of our goods go to Asia. The Columbia River is the largest wheat exporting port in North America, second largest in soybean and corn. It feeds a lot of the world.

Miller: So this was less about Canada and Mexico, and more about a general sense that tariffs could be coming that could make international trade or exports more expensive, so get the stuff to the ports of entry as quickly as possible?

Jordan: Yes, that’s correct.

Miller: And now you’ve seen a drop in traffic that you attribute to the newly announced tariffs?

Jordan: Yeah, most likely.

Miller: How are you feeling right now, as somebody who spends so much time working with ships and shipping?

Jordan: Well, it’s always a challenge. It’s been a challenge in the past. For those of us that work with ships, we’re used to dealing with challenges. But we certainly like to minimize them as much as possible, and that’s where the Weather Service is really helpful for us.

Miller: Dan, thanks very much.

Jordan: You’re welcome.

Miller: Dan Jordan is the administrator with Columbia River Bar Pilots.

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