Lookback: Why winter ice and snowstorms can paralyze Portland

Looking back on recent ice and snow storms in 2024 and 2023, it might seem to Portlanders like extreme winter events are becoming more common. But that may not necessarily be the case.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorologist Clinton Rockey said these dramatic winter storms could be on the wane, generally.

“I think you could safely assume that we are getting less big snow events,” he said. “We had 2008, and 2024 brought some nice snows. But nothing like we saw back in the 1960s and 1950s. So, long term, I suspect we’re getting a little bit warmer, so that means less snowfall.”

How Portland’s winter ice and snowstorms form

Ice and snow storms in the Greater Portland/Vancouver metro area and the Willamette Valley can only happen under a very specific confluence of at least three weather events.

“You have to have that cool offshore flow to get the air mass cold enough,” Rockey said. “At the same time, you’ve got to bring in precipitation from somewhere off the coast, to come into this cold air mass to get the moisture falling.”

The third factor, Rockey said, is for the temperature to stay low enough for the snow or ice to stick around and build up. More often, the temperature quickly rises and rain washes away any ice or snow relatively quickly.

On top of all that, elevations vary so much from the coast, to the Coast Range, to the Willamette Valley to the Cascades and the Columbia River Gorge, that it’s extremely hard to forecast exactly where precipitation may fall as rain rather than ice or snow.

In the 2 miles from Waterfront Park to Washington Park, the elevation increases by nearly 600 feet. U.S. 26 climbs to to over 700 feet at the Sylvan overpass and Interstate 5 reaches about 620 feet. Southwest Portland’s Council Crest and Southeast Portland’s Mount Scott are both more than 1,000 feet above sea level. If the snow level is expected to be around 500 feet on any given day, it’s hard to say which of those areas will actually see that snow stick. Where that precipitation does linger, as snow or as ice, travel will become particularly treacherous.

Several of Portland’s recent winter storms hampered movement on major streets and highways, both for drivers trying to get home and for the crews trying to get out and clear the roads. Following a February 2023 snow storm that brought the city to a screeching halt, transportation officials said they had been planning ahead to clear a few inches of snow. But instead, more than 11 inches of snow very suddenly blanketed the city.

2023: Meteorologists explain why the snow forecast was so wrong

Drivers started frantically trying to get home, even before snow plows and other emergency crews could get out and clear the way. Many of those drivers couldn’t navigate the snow and steep inclines, so they got stuck. Disabled and abandoned vehicles then blocked emergency crews, as well as buses and light rail trains. As the vehicles stayed still amid the storm, it became harder and harder to move them.

Because such storms are still relatively rare, they can easily catch Portlanders off guard. But that same scenario of the February 2023 snow storm had paralyzed the metro area in 2008, 2017, and 2021. And it would happen again in 2024.

Notable recent winter storms

On Jan. 12, 2024, Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler declared a winter weather emergency as the forecast called for cold weather and snow. By the next day, a combination of high winds, freezing rain, sleet and snow had already knocked down trees and powerlines.

Tens of thousands of people lost their power, dozens had trees fall directly on their homes, and major highways were closed due to icy conditions. Road and utility crews could not keep up as the winter weather walloped the area for several more days. Some reported ice piled 4 to 6 inches high. By the time the skies and road began to clear, at least eight people had died due to weather-related causes.

Related: Lessons learned from the devastating 2024 winter storm

On the morning of Feb. 22, 2023, as mentioned above, forecasters were expecting a dusting to a few inches of snow to make its way to the valley floor in the metro area. Local road crews were ready with de-icer, snow plows and other tools to clear a couple inches of snow if necessary.

By the time the afternoon commute began, 2 inches of snow had fallen across much of the Portland area. By rush hour, Portland’s main roads were clogged with unprepared commuters. TriMet buses got stuck and the agency began canceling routes. More than 600 cars were abandoned in Portland as drivers could no longer navigate the local roadways.

By the next day, nearly 11 inches of snow had fallen, making it the second-snowiest day ever recorded in the city. The storm basically shut down the city through the following weekend.

Related: Portland-area transportation agencies unprepared for historic snowstorm

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Forecasters said the discrepancy came down to a low-pressure system that stalled over Portland, rather than blowing over. If that system had kept moving, the precipitation would likely have been all rain.

In February 2021 and January 2017, similar sudden snowstorms also paralyzed the Portland metro area with snow and ice.

And one of the most memorable storms of the 21st Century happened in December 2008, Rockey noted, because it lasted much longer than a couple days, or a week.

“We had the big snows prior to Christmas, and had snow on the ground for about 10 days before we finally started losing it and the snow started melting away off the roadways,” he said.

Rockey said while these cases are understandably top of mind for a lot of Portlanders and Oregonians when they hear of a looming winter weather advisory, they are still rare. The metro area is now seeing fewer major winter weather events than in the mid-20th century.

Historic 20th century storms

On Oct. 12, 1962, the most destructive windstorm ever recorded in the Northwest struck the region. According to the Oregon Encyclopedia, the Columbus Day storm “may have been the most powerful extratropical cyclone ever to hit the western United States.”

In downtown Portland, wind gusts of 116 miles per hour hit the Morrison Bridge. Portland General Electric reported that 98 percent of its users lost power, some for up to two weeks.

More: The record-breaking Columbus Day Storm of 1962

So, while it wasn’t an ice or a snow storm, storms since then are measured against the massive damage caused by the Columbus Day storm. It left at least 50 people dead and caused an estimated $200 million in damages in the U.S., or just about $2.1 billion in today’s dollars, with the brunt of the impact in Oregon.

Damage from the winter Willamette River floods of 1964 and 1996 put together totaled about $2.4 billion in today’s dollars.

For more recent context, the January 2024 storm caused an estimated $48 million in damages, according to the Oregon Department of Emergency Management. And the Capital Chronicle estimates it cost businesses around $165 million in lost revenue and wages. OEM estimates the February 2021 storm caused nearly $27 million in damages.

In terms of snowfall, Jan. 21, 1943 holds the record for Portland, with 14.4 inches in a single day. According to Rockey, snow events back then, while not as extreme as that one, happened frequently.

Between the 1964 and 1996 flood, and especially since 1996, winter weather events have become much less common, he said.

Oregon State Climatologist Larry O’Neil told OPB after the 2024 winter storm that what might seem like an increase in dramatic winter events is actually the collective memory losing sight of what Oregon weather looked like in the 20th Century.

“Thirty or 50 years ago, we used to get more of these ice storms, more low-elevation snow events in Oregon,” he said. “The last 20 or 30 years, we haven’t been getting this as often as we used to, or as intense as we used to. People have forgotten how to deal with this.”

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Rockey said the relative decrease in major snow events also explains why crews might not be as equipped in the metro area to handle such storms.

“You don’t have very much snow forecast and even when it does, you’re only talking about a couple of days at most you probably expect it during the winter season,” he said. “That’s just not a lot to bank a huge amount of infrastructure to go against. Now if you notice, up in the high country, that’s not a problem. Eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, you see snow more often, of course you’re going to see more snow plows and materials stored up to take care of it.”

He says Portlanders can still expect to see potentially two days of freezing rain, about three to four days of snow, and a total of 4 to 6 inches of snow each winter. And when there is that rare confluence of a cold air mass mixed with heavy precipitation and freezing temperatures, there may still be a major event that grinds the metro area to a halt.

Changing climate

According to Rockey, the more noticeable impact of the changing climate will be happening in the summers as climate zones are slowly shifting.

“So if you can imagine climate zones basically shifting northwards from, you know, 75 to 100 miles over the next 30 to 40 years, that seems to be what’s happening,” Rockey said.

Warm summers will mean it takes a bit longer for Oregon’s snowpack to build in the fall. And even if there’s decent snowfall in the Cascades, that snowpack is likely to start melting more quickly in the spring. The rivers that the Cascades drain into will run a little higher in those spring months, and then the ground in Oregon will get drier faster ahead of the warm summers.

Related: Oregon state climatologist says heat waves getting hotter, more frequent and coming earlier