Members of OPB’s politics team join us to provide analysis and share the latest updates on Oregon races in the general election. They’ll discuss the results of statewide ballot measures and analyze some of the congressional district races, as well as the latest developments in Portland’s historic elections to choose a new mayor and expand the city council from five seats to 12. We’ll also hear from some of the candidates who won or are leading in statewide and congressional contests.
Note: The following transcript was transcribed digitally and validated for accuracy, readability and formatting by an OPB volunteer.
Dave Miller: This is Think Out Loud on OPB. I’m Dave Miller. Oregon remains a very blue state, but the country as a whole is a lot redder than it was four years ago. That is the overwhelming message from last night. Oregon Democrats seem to have retained control of every statewide office, with the secretary of state, attorney general and treasurer races, and they might retake control of the 5th U.S. Congressional District.
The national picture, obviously, was a kind of mirror image. Donald Trump won the presidency in a landslide, with both the electoral college and popular votes. It seemed that he swept every single swing state. Republicans also retook the U.S. Senate, and may retain control of the House – although we won’t know for sure for a little while.
We’re going to talk about all of this right now with members of our reporting team, as well as winning candidates at the federal, state and local levels. We start with OPB political reporter Dirk VanderHart. Dirk, good to see you as always.
Dirk VanderHart: Hi, Dave.
Miller: It was a really dramatic night for a lot of reasons, but was it surprising to you at all at the Oregon level?
VanderHart: Almost universally no. We sort of knew what to expect or what we thought we were expecting on a lot of these races, statewide races, legislative races, some of the ballot measures. And almost universally, they came down the way we thought.
There are some big things up in the air, as you mentioned: the 5th Congressional District, too close to call [and] a number of legislative races that are still hanging out there. But if they go the way that they kind of look like they’re going to go, we are going to see a very similar makeup of the Oregon political landscape next year like we’re seeing today.
Miller: So a huge switch over at the national level, and more or less, it seems a status quo in Oregon.
VanderHart: All indications are that all the statewide officers in the state will be Democrats. The Democrats will hold majorities and potentially supermajorities in the legislature. Obviously, the governor wasn’t up to play. The congressional delegation could shift a little bit, and it will be dominated by Democrats as well.
Miller: I want to turn to some of the statewide races. What do you see as the big questions that were in front of voters in the attorney general’s race?
VanderHart: This was the race that I think everyone was paying attention to on the statewide level for a couple of reasons. One was the Republicans had a pretty credible candidate in Republican Will Lathrop. He was a former prosecutor. He was making a forceful case to folks that the disorder, the drug use, a lot of the concerns that voters around Oregon have, really landed in Democrats’ laps. And attorney general was the race where they could make their dissatisfaction known.
We had a former House speaker in Dan Rayfield on the Democratic side. He was making an argument essentially that while those things are important, attorney general is a bigger thing, and that he would be defending things like abortion and other, maybe, oversteps on the federal level. That’s an argument that Lathrop didn’t really engage with all that much, and we see Dan Rayfield has prevailed.
Miller: It’s interesting you mentioned drug use as one of the issues there, because it would have been possible to see this AG’s race as the first time that Oregon voters could have a kind of proxy return vote to Measure 110, where they decriminalized drugs, and then there was a backlash, and then lawmakers themselves basically cut that in half. That could be voiced by this former prosecutor/political outsider. But that didn’t happen.
VanderHart: Not all that different from the district attorney’s race we saw in Multnomah County – there was a bit of a proxy there.
Rayfield had the opportunity to undercut that momentum that Lathrop might have had by virtue of the fact that, as House speaker, he was really able to shepherd through a bill that put drug possession back as a misdemeanor, that really rolled back a lot of the controversial pieces of [Measure] 110. I think some Republicans weren’t that happy that that was able to be an argument he can make.
Miller: We’re going to talk a little later with Tobias Read, who is the presumptive secretary of state-elect. What stands out to you in that race?
VanderHart: Both the secretary of state and treasurer’s race were ones where the Republicans weren’t running super energetic, well-funded campaigns. That was one where Tobias Read is bringing an argument of stability and defending democracy. And he was up against a Republican candidate in Senator Dennis Linthicum, who had sued over Oregon’s method of voting, had argued that voters were being massively disenfranchised by virtue of the fact that we are voting by mail, really signaling that he has no confidence or very little confidence in Oregon’s electoral system. The issue of democracy could hardly have been more at the fore and bigger contrast there.
Read was broadly expected to win. So not much of a surprise in the results right now.
Miller: In both of those races that we were talking about, the two Republicans ran for statewide office after they were disqualified from running for the state Senate again. And that was because of their unexcused absences stemming from a record GOP walkout, and a voter-passed measure saying that if you have a certain number of unexcused absences you can’t run again. There was a whole legal issue following that, but as we’ve talked about a number of times over the years, it was decided, and they couldn’t run again.
So, first of all, where does the threat of walkouts in the Oregon Legislature stand right now?
VanderHart: And just to be clear, you’re talking about Senator Brian Boquist and Senator Dennis Linthicum who both walked out.
I think it’s in a bit of a gray area. One could argue that we have a whole slate of senators who walked out who will no longer be in the legislature. Some of them tried to jump onto this life raft of a statewide office unsuccessfully. Maybe that drives home the point that walking out really is going to have consequences. Your ability to be involved in political life in Oregon will be severely constrained if you do this.
But I think what we’ve heard from Senate Republican leadership specifically is that they are not necessarily cowed by, that maybe some of the members that are coming on board have signaled they would be willing to walk out in the case of a bill that they really take strenuous objection to. So maybe they would be willing to take that sacrifice.
Miller: It’s a one-term term limit to accomplish what you can do as a member of the minority party. Is that basically the way they might, if not say it, then see it?
VanderHart: In effect, that is what it would be regardless of how they look at it. And we are looking at a situation where it does look like Republicans will be in the super minority in the Senate. That is a situation that, in the past, has bred the kinds of walkouts, delay tactics, that have become more common in Salem. So I don’t rule anything out. People don’t wanna get kicked out of office. So there are some strong countervailing forces there. But I don’t think it’s out of the question.
Miller: You mentioned an important phrase: the “supermajority.” This is just, that we know right now, for the state Senate. What does that mean?
VanderHart: A supermajority in Salem means that a party holds three-fifths, 60% of the seats in either chamber. If you get that margin, you can pass virtually any bill on a one-party vote. New taxes is the biggie – you cannot pass a new tax without a three-fifths vote. Democrats, as you say, seem to have their 18-person majority in the Senate. House Democrats may get there, but it’s a little less likely.
It’s a very important metric because we are coming into 2025, when the legislative session is likely to feature budget constraints where we might need more money. They’re gonna be talking about billions of dollars for roads. There’s money for housing that will be taken up, all sorts of needs, wildfire … there’s a huge laundry list of things that lawmakers would like to put money to, and just not a lot of money. So supermajorities could be very, very big.
Miller: Speaking of money questions, I don’t think there was a more lopsided statewide result in this election than ballot Measure 118. Can you just remind us, first, what it would have done?
VanderHart: This would have been I think the largest business tax hike in state history. It would have put a 3% tax on businesses [with] Oregon sales over $25 million. That would have resulted in about $6 billion in new state tax revenue. But the state wouldn’t keep it, that money would be handed out to every resident of the state – infants, the elderly, everyone in between, we were told, would have gotten a yearly check or tax credit. Obviously, something that could be a very good selling point. But this was pounced on by corporate interests, and really every politically astute group in the state opposed it.
Miller: Including public employee unions and including basically all the prominent Democratic-elected officials.
VanderHart: That’s right. And for a whole variety of reasons. There were concerns that this would blow a hole in the state budget. There were arguments being made that this would just be a hidden sales tax and prices would increase. Obviously, Oregonians do not like sales taxes. And $15 million or more was spent to shoot this thing down. And that sort of saturation of communications clearly made a difference.
Miller: Dirk, there is a lot more for us to talk about. But Suzanne Bonamici joins us now. She easily won reelection last night, and in January is going to start her seventh term as a Democratic Representative from Oregon’s 1st Congressional District. With the retirement of Earl Blumenauer, Bonamici is about to become the longest serving current member of Oregon’s House delegation. Suzanne Bonamici, welcome back.
Suzanne Bonamici: Thank you.
Miller: How are you feeling right now?
Bonamici: Well, I’m deeply disappointed by the results last night. It’s been a very hard day so far, not just for me, but for many people I’ve spoken with, with the uncertainty and the surprise. But I know that I’m up for the fight. And we have a wonderful delegation of strong women in Oregon, and I’m looking forward to fighting with them.
Miller: There are still a number of uncalled House races, but the Democratic opportunity to flip the U.S. House of Representatives, it’s seeming to get narrower and narrower. What have you been hearing about those chances from caucus leaders?
Bonamici: Well, we’re still counting votes in many states, and we are going to make sure that every single vote is counted. And in some states, that’s going to take longer. There are more than 50 races that are still undecided. So we’re gonna keep up hope, and know that we flipped a few already. We’re going to continue to work to make sure again that every single vote is counted. I’m not giving up hope on that. I’ve been out talking to people, particularly in the Oregon races. And there have been a lot of people who are really, really engaged, and we owe them to count every single vote. So I’m still hoping for and planning for Speaker Hakeem Jeffries.
Miller: Are you already hearing second guessing about the campaign that Vice President Harris ran?
Bonamici: Well, I’m gonna leave that up to the pundits. Of course, there’s a lot of talk about that in the media. You can’t change history, you can learn from it. We need to go forward and plan how we’re gonna fight. We’ve been here before. I was in Congress in 2016. We know we’re up against a fight. And that’s what I’m focused on, is what we’re gonna do going forward.
Miller: You say you leave that to pundits, but it does seem like it’s also a question for elected officials and party officials. There are still more votes to be counted, but right now Donald Trump has a close to a 5 million vote lead in the popular vote. This will be the first time a Republican has won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004 – 20 years. What kind of soul searching will a loss like this lead to within the party?
Bonamici: Well, obviously we’ll be talking about it. And to me it’s baffling. Obviously, it just seems like the message didn’t get through to voters. People out there have been through a lot in the past couple of years. Since the pandemic, there’s been a lot of angst, isolation, manipulation of social media – all of those things came together.
It’s so surprising to me because, I mean, it’s pretty clear that Donald Trump is an insurrectionist. He has long history of undermining the government, his economic plan … most people who listen to the news or listen to economists know it would be a disaster. To me, it really feels like he’s there to advance his own personal needs. So to me it’s baffling that he appears to be winning the popular vote. Of course, we will talk about what didn’t get through, what message didn’t get through, why didn’t people understand what we seem to see as the facts of who he is, and why he’s running, and what his plans will do.
And I tell you, we kind of know his plan because of Project 2025. We know what he’s gonna go after and what he’s going to try to do. I won’t stop working to stop that and hold him accountable wherever we can. And I am looking forward to working with our new attorney general here in Oregon. You were just talking about the local races. We have a strong delegation here in our House and our Senate, but particularly in our statewide offices. We partner with our statewide electeds, and we’ll be looking to them and other state leaders across the country to do what we can to do good things for the people of Oregon, but also to protect democracy.
Miller: I know you’re hopeful, and you said, obviously every vote has to be counted. But let’s say that the current trend holds and Republicans retain control of the House, that would give them a governing trifecta with the Senate and the White House. It’s something they had in 2017 when you were in Congress.
Bonamici: Yeah, I remember.
Miller: I’m sure you do. I’m sure a lot of our listeners remember it. But in those first two years before the midterms, the GOP passed a large tax cut, the Senate confirmed two Supreme Court justices. But I don’t think there were other big legislative achievements that stemmed from that ostensibly powerful trifecta. What do you think might be different this time around?
Bonamici: It’s really hard to say, with him coming back. I’m concerned about the Project 2025 plan to oust the people he sees as incompatible with his views. Because in those first two years, there are a lot of people, whether they be in the Department of Justice or the EPA … Project 2025 calls for eliminating NOAA, that would be devastating. So hopefully, we will have enough people be able to stay in the agencies to protect them. And then we’ll continue to fight back. During those two years, we talked about Infrastructure Week and had Infrastructure Week. We didn’t get infrastructure done until we had President Biden and Vice President Harris. So we actually got a lot done for the American people. They passed a big tax cut that benefits wealthy people and doesn’t do much for the working people.
So we’re gonna keep watching, see what their plans are, and fight back against them. And then work for two years from now where hopefully, like we did last time, people will see that their interests are not being served by this administration, particularly now when we have these anti-choice people, and insurrectionists, and people who really want to control women’s personal lives. They say they don’t want a national abortion ban, but you can bet that they’re gonna try to pass it in one way or another. So we’re gonna fight back against that.
I’m still holding out hope for the Democrats to be in the majority in the House. But if that happens, I know that we’re gonna start working on day one to get the message out about how the Trump/Vance policies are not helping the people in our communities, the people who are still struggling, the people who need a hand up, the people who are fighting to get by. They’re going to help wealthy people, which is exactly what their big tax cut bill did.
Miller: You mentioned there the huge role that reproductive rights could play going forward. But there was also a lot of talk about how that would play a huge role in this election. There was a lot of hope that women would come out in force to vote for Kamala Harris. It appears that that didn’t materialize. The word you used earlier when I asked about your thoughts about what happened is you said you were baffled, it was “baffling.” So I’m not sure that you have an answer for this, but do you have a theory for what happened?
Bonamici: I’m still pondering that, Dave. It’s been a really tough day. I know a lot of people are looking at it and we’re trying to figure out what happened. I was knocking on doors and talking to people. I just can’t really explain it. We know who he is. What I saw with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz was a competent, compassionate team of leaders who were really fighting for what’s best for the people of the country and wanting to bring the country together. And what I saw from the Trump/Vance team was chaos, and frankly crudeness. So I’m still baffled. I’ll be sorting that out.
But again, somehow or another, the message didn’t get through to voters. I know the majority of people in this country support having the right to make one’s own health care decisions, not having reproductive health care decisions made by politicians or the government. So, I don’t know, I really don’t. Unless people just assume that they’re not going to go any farther or take any more steps. They’re using the “it’s up to the states” argument. But I’m convinced that if the Republicans are in the majority in both chambers, they are going to try to ban abortion nationwide.
Miller: Suzanne Bonamici, thanks very much for your time. We will talk again.
Bonamici: Thank you so much.
Miller: Suzanne Bonamici is the Democratic Representative from Oregon’s 1st Congressional District. Last night, she won her seventh term as a Democratic member of Congress.
I should say that we did reach out to three members of the Oregon Republican party’s leadership this morning – we did not hear back from them. We were able to get in touch with Cliff Bentz. He represents Oregon’s 2nd Congressional District, which encompasses more than half of the state – nearly two-thirds of Central and Eastern Oregon. He was not available to come on the show today, but he will be available … we are going to be having him on the show tomorrow.
Tobias Read joins us now. He has served as Oregon’s treasurer for the last eight years. Based on the current results, he’s expected to become the next secretary of state. This is after his race against outgoing Republican state Senator Dennis Linthicum. Tobias Reed, welcome back.
Tobias Read: Thank you. Nice to see you, Dave.
Miller: It’s good to have you on. How are you feeling right now?
Read: Well, I’m feeling encouraged that voters agreed with our agenda, and excited to get to work on that to ensure that Oregon continues to have fair and safe and inclusive elections; to make sure that the audit powers of the secretary of state’s office used to make sure that taxpayer dollars are spent well for results; and to return stability and trust to an office that needs it.
Miller: How are you dealing with, maybe cognitive dissonance is the right word for your party’s dominance statewide, in an election where nationally the party was trounced?
Read: I think, for me, it’s really a matter of focusing on what my job will be as the next secretary of state, and that is to rebuild trust in government and in processes. The secretary of state has a unique role in that, based on the responsibilities around elections and as the auditor. I think the results nationally reflect that voters are not feeling that confidence. And so I’m trying to take increased resolve and energy to devote myself to that mission, and rebuild trust and confidence in the office to which I’ve been elected, and more broadly as well.
Miller: What do you see as the biggest areas where a Trump presidency and potential control of both chambers of Congress will affect the lives of Oregonians?
Read: Gosh, that’s a hard question to answer, because the federal government has so many policies and choices in front of it. So hopefully, we will be able to continue to have those conversations in Oregon and transmit to the country examples of how we’re able to function well; to build confidence amongst people from varied backgrounds and outlooks; to come to solutions that, while not everyone will like every choice, at least we can have a process that recognizes those alternative perspectives and includes them. I really hope that we can use that as an example to the rest of the country.
Miller: That last question was pretty broad, so let’s drill down. How are you assuming that a Trump presidency might intersect with your particular jobs as secretary of state, a position that that broadly is divided up into the auditing of state agencies, the managing of elections and business registration?
Read: It remains to be seen, I think. Obviously, the specifics of a Trump administration will roll out as those cabinet members and policies are advanced, and so on. But I think we will be resolute in Oregon, as we have been for a long time, in our belief that we are stronger and better as a state when everyone who is eligible is registered to vote and chooses to participate, who has the confidence in that. And when we have an audit system that is based not on a political agenda, not on predetermined outcomes, but on a robust and rigorous process that’s aimed at making sure that people are getting the results that they want and need from our policies and from our expenditures. And how that interacts with the federal government remains to be seen. But I think we can be consistent and dedicated to that agenda.
Miller: States have a ton of authority over the way elections are conducted. But what could, let’s say, a more effective or coordinated Republican trifecta do at the federal level that would affect the way Oregon elections are run?
Read: I hesitate to speculate. But I think what we’ve seen, even in the race that I just finished, is a fundamental difference in belief. I think it is important to be focused on how we can invite more people who are eligible to vote to find it convenient, to find the confidence in that.
One of the things I was most proud of near the end of the campaign was a very low-tech, homemade video we produced with a number of elected leaders from around the state, Democrats and Republicans, including the independent member of the Oregon House, saying “Vote.” This is important. We were careful and intentional in that conversation to not talk at all about how someone might choose to vote. But I think we should be proud of the work that we’ve done in Oregon to make it convenient for people to vote.
But we should not assume that those achievements are automatic or invulnerable. The federal government and state governments, if they so choose, can make that harder. We’ve moved in a direction over 25 years, since Oregon became the first state in the country to conduct all our elections by mail, of making it more convenient for people to vote, because we believe that that’s better for the state. And I want to make sure, as secretary of state, that Oregon continues that direction, regardless of what others might be pressuring us to do.
Miller: We are so used to this point to just tossing out phrases like “blue states” and “red states,” and then the handful of all important “swing states.” But I feel like we often take those terms for granted. Then on days like today or nights like last night, when the differences are so stark, I feel like it can be helpful to interrogate them. What do you think makes Oregon blue? What is different about Oregon now from a majority of the country?
Read: As treasurer, I’ve always been trying to be really deliberate and clear about when I have my fiduciary hat on and when I don’t. And so I’m getting used to the idea that I will have a similar distinction to make a secretary of state.
But as a Democrat, I think a lot of our success in Oregon as Democrats comes from the fact that we’ve really tried to focus on the policies that make a difference in the lives that Oregonians lead, the needs that they have. And I think that’s a big factor in our electoral success, because the policies that my party has tended to try to advance have resonated with people. I think that, looking forward, that is a good route to seek if Democrats want to enjoy continued electoral success, and more importantly, continue to seek to improve the lives that Oregonians lead.
Miller: The word that Representative Bonamici used a couple of times was “baffled.” I didn’t press on it too much, but we did experience 2016, all of us. And I’m just curious if you, too, were baffled by the decisions that a majority of Americans made or if it made sense to you?
Read: Well, I think it would be really dangerous and insulting frankly to question voters’ intent. Obviously, I voted for the vice president and Governor Walz. Other people are the best judges of their own priorities. And my job as secretary of state will be to make sure that that is reflected in their votes, that their votes are accurately counted.
I think we all will do well to try to put ourselves in the shoes of other people and understand how people come to that conclusion. For me, the clear lesson is to try to be focused on building trust and confidence. We’re not all going to agree on every policy. But I hope we can seek a kind of place where people can have confidence in our processes in our systems, and ultimately, the intent and the results of our state and federal government.
Miller: Tobias Read, thanks very much.
Read: Thank you.
Miller: Democrat Tobias Read is expected to be Oregon’s next secretary of state.
We have not forgotten about crucial elections for Portland Mayor and City Council, but because those elections are still too close to call, we’re holding off on conversations about them until later in the week. And trust me … there is going to be a lot to talk about in the days, weeks and months to follow.
We’re going to turn to Andrea Salinas now. She is the Democratic Representative from Oregon’s 6th Congressional District – the state’s newest district. It stretches from Portland’s southwest suburbs down to Salem. Salinas seems to have won her first reelection bid last night in a rematch with Republican business owner Mike Erickson. I talked to her late last night and asked how she was feeling.
Andrea Salinas: I feel fantastic. It feels really good to know all the work … I worked my tail off. And I tell people this all the time, I worked really hard to make sure I delivered for the 6th Congressional District. I was able to secure, I think we’ve talked about, over $300 million in federal grants. I brought back community project funds that improve our drinking water, some of our sewer lines, improve transportation corridors. I feel like I’ve engaged in really important conversations that will move the district forward. I now can continue that work, and I’m eager to do it. I’m so happy that the constituents and the voters of this district want me to do it.
Miller: The conventional wisdom I’ve heard over the years is that a member of Congress’s first reelection bid can be the most challenging one; that after that, incumbency can become maybe a more powerful force. Do you believe that?
Salinas: I will say this race felt very challenging and I didn’t take anything for granted. The hardest part was that you don’t want to give up the time that you are actually working for the people in order to have to go out and campaign. And that part, balancing those two, is very difficult.
So it is very challenging. And I will look forward to future incumbency. But doing both the work on the official side and the campaign side is of course a challenge. But I was up for the task, and happy to do it.
Miller: Is your next fundraiser already scheduled?
Salinas: Thank God, no [Laughter].
Miller: I wouldn’t have been surprised if the answer were yes. I mean, a two-year term, I guess it can ramp up and campaigning can become more intense, but it does seem like members of Congress are running essentially all the time.
Salinas: It feels that way for sure. And it certainly felt like that after the ‘22 election cycle. I know when I finished with that race, it did feel like I was doing my thank yous in November, and I want to say I probably started raising in mid- to late-December. And while I probably expect to do that, I’m not as organized and on top of it. I don’t have plans and my goals yet.
It is a lot, and it is constant. I would love to see Citizens United brought to a close, and some changes made on that. But I think we need a different court system.
Miller: Well, let’s turn to the national picture. Because if the current trends hold, Republicans are going to hold both chambers of Congress and the presidency. What do you think that will mean for you as a member, essentially, of the opposition?
Salinas: Well, I think we’ve had this conversation before, Dave. I am interested in delivering for the 6th Congressional Districts and for Oregonians, and putting the needs of Oregonians first. I was able to pass a bill in 2023, one of only 27 bills, in the minority with a Republican majority. And so I do know how to get things done. I do know how to work across the aisle, and I do know how to meet people from the other party where they are. So I will look for those opportunities to do just that. I’m not saying it will be easy, but I’ve been around legislation, I’ve been around policy, I’ve been around government enough to know how things work. And I think I can start to navigate that sooner rather than later. But yeah, it’s going to be difficult.
Miller: But unless I’m wrong about your political biography, you are entering I think uncharted waters here. When you were in the Oregon Legislature, Kate Brown and Tina Kotek were governors, Joe Biden has been in office since you got to Congress. So have you ever served in a legislature where the chief executive was from the other party?
Salinas: No, I have not. However, when I served as a staffer many years ago, there were Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House. I actually started working for a senator and members of Congress during the Republican revolution of 1994, and came in and started working for Harry Reid in 1996, and Bill Clinton was the [chief] executive. We had House and Senate majorities for a long time. But no, I’ve never worked in a space where all three, both chambers and the White House, were in Republican control.
Miller: Can you give us a sense for the kinds of text messages or messages you’ve been a part of tonight? It’s not the first time – 2016 comes to mind as the most recent example of this with the same likely presidential result, where there were massive Democratic wins in this state, and massive Democratic losses nationally. I’m just curious what you’ve been hearing from your political friends and allies, with results going in such wildly different directions?
Salinas: It is certainly bittersweet. It is hard to reconcile what feels like a bright beacon of light here in Oregon with people who want to come together and continue to move our state forward, and yet a nation that feels very differently and still very divided. I will say the messages, they’ve been mixed honestly. I think in the Pacific Northwest, we’re going to see some good winds. It sounds like my colleague Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who I served with in the freshman class, it looks like she could end up coming back. I think Oregon five is still in play. So it’s mixed. I think what people continue to say is that we’re going to continue to do the work, and we’re going to continue to hold strong in our values.
Miller: Andrea Salinas, thanks so much for your time. We appreciate it.
Salinas: Thanks, Dave. Take care.
Miller: That was Andrea Salinas, the Democratic Representative from Oregon’s 6th Congressional District. She has likely won her first reelection bid.
Angela Plowhead joins us now. She is the vice chair of the Oregon Republican Party. Angela, welcome to the show.
Angela Plowhead: Hi, thanks for having me.
Miller: It’s great to have you on. Representative Bonamici, who we talked to earlier, said she was baffled by the fact that Donald Trump has won the presidency. My guess is that you are not.
Plowhead: No, no we’re not.
Miller: Why do you think Donald Trump’s message resonated so much with American voters?
Plowhead: I think there are a number of reasons for it. I think primarily because of the economy. We’ve the media and we’ve had the current administration for the last three-and-a-half years telling us how wonderful and fabulous things are and that we’re living in the Disneyland of economic prosperity, when people aren’t seeing that in their everyday life. And people are tired of having this idea forced upon them so different than their reality.
Miller: So you are saying you feel like voters felt a disconnect between what they hear from Democratic leaders and their own economic lives?
Plowhead: Yeah, absolutely. I think that was one of the biggest pieces.
Miller: Donald Trump was thwarted in some ways from carrying out some of his intended policies in his first term by members of his own administration. But he and the people around him have been a lot more careful, it seems, about prioritizing loyalty in hiring this time around. What do you think that’s going to mean?
Plowhead: I think what that means is that instead of relying on others' views of who someone is, he’s been around a lot longer now, he’s had a lot more inroads into the political sphere. And so he has a better understanding of who people are and what their values are when he’s going to appoint. So I think this next few months is going to be a really focused period on looking at not just who someone says they are or what a recommendation from this other person is, but really vetting people a little more seriously before he appoints them to a position.
Miller: Let’s turn to the statewide picture. How are you feeling right now about the state-based Oregon Republican Party?
Plowhead: I think we have a lot of wins that we were really looking for in this race. We held our seats in the House that we were looking to hold. We have a couple that still haven’t been called that I think are pretty close that we hopefully will be able to do some ballot curing on and actually pull those out. So I feel like even though we didn’t get maybe some of the wins that we had wanted statewide, I think that there are certainly some other very bright points for us in this. And those were gains that we had back in 2022 that we were able to maintain. So I think even though maybe the political picture in Oregon isn’t as bright for the Republicans as it is nationwide, I think that there are a lot of really bright points still that we are focused on.
Miller: Only one Republican has been elected statewide in Oregon in this century. That was the late Dennis Richardson who was elected secretary of state in 2016. He wasn’t a moderate, but his vibe was sort of conciliatory. Notably, he worked with Democrats when there was an evenly divided state House. Do you see him as a model, first, that could even win a Republican primary today? Could that style win a primary?
Plowhead: We do have a lot of divisiveness in our state for sure. But I think we see, looking at Portland as an example, of when policies have gone very wrong, that people within the city rose up and said, “Look, we’re not going to do this anymore. We’re going to go a different route.” And while they may not have been willing to go all the way over to a more conservative candidate, they were willing to look at someone that was a little more moderate.
So do I think that we’ve lost all hope of ever having a more evenly split state politically? I don’t. I think that we do have areas where we are looking at places where we have a much higher percentage of registered voters that are Democrats than we do Republicans. But there’s still so many Independents and non-affiliated voters across our state … and I think what we’re seeing with some of the ballot measures that have been on the ballot this cycle, that people do still want common sense policies that are really going to mean prosperity for them and their families, and opportunities that are going to work across the board for everyone, not just certain demographics of people.
Miller: Angela Plowhead, thanks very much.
Plowhead: Absolutely.
Miller: That’s Angela Plowhead, vice chair of the Oregon Republican Party.
Bryce Dole joins us now, one of the members of OPB’s political reporting team. Bryce, good to have you here.
Bryce Dole: Hi, Dave.
Miller: One of the races you’ve been looking at, I think the only congressional race that’s really close right now in Oregon: Oregon’s 5th Congressional District. Who is in this and where does this stand right now?
Dole: The incumbent in this race is Republican U.S. Representative Lori Chavez-DeRemer. She won here in a really close race in 2022 and she flipped the district for Republicans. Her opponent is Janelle Bynum, a former Oregon legislator and a mother of four. Both of them are from Happy Valley. They actually have a pretty long political history together. They’ve faced off twice before in Oregon House races. But obviously, this is a very different political battleground that stretches over a huge swath of Oregon, from Portland to Bend.
At this point, this race is way too close to call. Bynum has a narrow lead, she’s leading Chavez-DeRemer with about 48% of the vote to 45% of the vote, but there’s still a lot of votes to count. Most of those votes are in Clackamas County, which is the area that’s arguably the most critical for these candidates to win, both because it has the most voters, but also because it’s the most politically purple. How it swings could really be critical in this race.
Miller: A particularly swingy part of a swingish district.
Given that, how did these two candidates try to appeal to moderate voters in the opposite party, or non-affiliated voters?
Dole: It’s important to remember that more than a third of the voters in this district are non-affiliated voters. However, non-affiliated voters, as we’ve been seeing through the Oregon Secretary of State results, turn out poorly.
So far, the candidates have been taking their own strategies to try and get those moderate voters who can swing one way or the other. Chavez-DeRemer has been not focusing so much on big national issues, but has been trying to get voters to think about bread and butter, kitchen table issues like childcare, the economy, public safety, crime. She’s been trying to tie Bynum to some of the struggles that the state has had in recent years around crime and addiction, the struggles the state had with Measure 110.
Bynum, for her part, has been really trying to portray Chavez-DeRemer as an imminent threat to abortion rights and democracy. So again, she’s been kind of focusing on national issues. The Democrats, they bet that those arguments would really get a lot of voter support. But obviously, nationally that hasn’t really turned out. So it’ll be really interesting to see what happens here.
Miller: It‘s pretty easy for us to see how the presidential race sort of mapped onto both of those candidates’ strategies in this. As you say, we’ll see how it works out.
I want to turn to one of the ballot measures that you’ve been looking at. The last I checked, voters had rejected the ranked choice voting ballot measure by almost 20% points. What do you see as the dynamics in this race?
Dole: Yeah, that was a really striking result, especially because the places in Oregon that have ranked choice voting right now, Multnomah County and Benton County – both of those counties actually voted for it. But practically the rest of Oregon, other than I think Hood River County, resoundingly rejected it. A lot of those counties were rural counties. It kind of appears that Measure 117 really wasn’t reaching a lot of those voters in those areas.
The proponents of this measure have kind of said over and over again that ranked choice voting is the antidote to political polarization, that it gives people more say in however many candidates they want to rank. But that message clearly didn’t reach people. The campaign for Measure 117 issued a statement today saying that Oregonians had missed an opportunity to have more voices and more choice in their elections. They really thought that they had the support that they needed. They’ve been raising a huge amount of money over the last couple of years. Their campaign had more than $3.4 million in money from out of state groups. So it was really striking to see that it was defeated so soundly.
I think a lot of that was also because a lot of county clerks in Oregon came out formally against it. But a lot of them also said that they’re clerks and they didn’t want to tell people how to vote one way or the other. They, over the summer, raised a lot of concerns around this measure around how much it would cost, where the money would come from, around transparency. And I think a lot of voters probably heard that and said, “These are the unbiased keepers of our elections. And if they’re raising such a fuss about this, I should care about it too.”
Miller: Dirk, we started with you, I want to end with you as well. Two more ballot measures to talk about where voters split, but they’re arguably connected. So the first is Measure 115, which voters said “yes” to. What will this do?
VanderHart: This will let Oregon join the rest of other states in giving impeachment powers to the legislature. So right now, the legislature has no mechanism by which it can eject a statewide official who’s accused of serious misconduct. When this goes into effect, the House will be able to impeach a governor, or a secretary of state, or a treasurer with a two-thirds vote that will then go to the state Senate. They can eject that official with a two-thirds vote. This stems from the scandal with former Secretary of State Shemia Fagan, who was found to have a very questionable relationship with a cannabis company.
Miller: What’s the connection between that story, and Measure 116, which voters said “no” to?
VanderHart: That was a measure that would have created a new commission that would look at um, elected officials salaries and determine whether they should be paid more.
Miller: Or less, technically. But that was unlikely to be the direction.
VanderHart: And theoretically this independent commission would really give it this unbiased view. That was connected to the Fagan scandal, because she said the reason she had to have this questionable relationship with the cannabis company is because secretaries of state get paid $77,000. She was a mom of two kids, she said that wasn’t enough for her to make ends meet. And so she needed to seek this outside work.
But in Salem, for years and years now, elected officials have sort of grumbled about what they get paid. The legislature always is thinking about how to increase the $35,000 or so salary of lawmakers. It is true that in many cases statewide elected officials get paid a lot less than maybe their deputies. In some cases, less than the same officials in other states. And so I think there is a growing thought that this needs to be looked at. Voters clearly weren’t sold on 116.
Miller: Dirk and Bryce, thanks very much.
VanderHart / Dole: Thanks, Dave.
Miller: If you want to learn a lot more about local, statewide and federal election results, head on over to opb.org. There is a ton of information there from our reporting team, as well as national news from AP and NPR.
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