Editor’s note: Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Stay informed with OPB on the presidential race, key congressional battles and other local contests and ballot measures in Oregon and Southwest Washington at opb.org/elections.
With two weeks left until Election Day, backers of a proposal to hike taxes on large businesses and issue payments to state residents are stepping up their efforts to make a case to voters.
Following a $250,000 donation from a wealthy donor last week, the campaign backing Ballot Measure 118 began airing ads on sites like YouTube, Facebook and Instagram over the weekend.
“I’m voting yes on Measure 118 because it will rebate $1,600 to every Oregonian every year and $6,400 for my family,” a woman says in one of the ads. Another features the same woman, an actress who appears to live in Minnesota, disputing arguments made by opponents of the measure.
Related: What you need to know about voting in Oregon and Southwest Washington
“It’s a tax cut for Oregonians, not a sales tax,” she says.
The ads come relatively late in the election cycle — well after most voters have received their ballots and as Oregonians have been pounded for weeks with messaging from the other side.
Corporations opposing Measure 118 have spent almost $12 million attacking it, ensuring voters around the state have been inundated with dire warnings about the measure’s impacts in their mailboxes, television screens and devices.
“Measure 118 would impose a massive $6.8 billion tax on sales in Oregon with no exemptions,” one of the ads says. “How much would 118 increase your family’s costs?”
Related: Issues important to Oregon voters
Oregon Public Broadcasting is a member of Oregon Business & Industry, a lobbying group that is running the campaign against the ballot measure, though OPB’s membership expires Oct. 31, and OPB does not plan to renew. OPB does not have any active role in that campaign.
Antonio Gisbert, one of the authors of Measure 118 and its chief petitioner, said Tuesday he thinks the flood of messaging from opponents could backfire.
“They are absolutely trying to flood the field with ads,” he said. “From talking to voters, folks are seeing through the opposition’s ads. What’s the Shakespeare line? ‘Doth protest too much?’”
Related: Listen to 'OPB Politics Now'
Measure 118 has emerged as the hardest-fought ballot measure Oregon is seeing this year, though much of that fighting is being done by the “no” side. With five- and six-figure checks pouring in from big companies around the country, the campaign has amassed more than $15 million — far more than the $640,000 so far reported by proponents.
The measure would add a 3% tax on businesses’ Oregon sales above $25 million, then divvy up the money raised among the state’s more than 4 million residents, no matter their age. One analysis by state revenue officials suggests the measure could result in payments of around $1,600 to every Oregonian, though an exact number isn’t known.
Proponents like Gisbert argue that large corporations are paying far too little in taxes in Oregon. They say the measure is an inventive way to redistribute corporate wealth to residents who need it more, and argue it will slash poverty and boost the state’s economy as people spend their annual payments. The measure bears some resemblance to the Alaska Permanent Fund, which sends residents an annual check from money the state reaps from oil.
State analysts say the measure would virtually eliminate state taxes owed by people who make less than $40,000 and ensure they receive money from the state instead.
Opponents argue that large businesses forced to pay the tax will simply pass it on to their customers, raising prices in Oregon and inspiring some businesses to cease operation here.
State revenue officials have estimated that the tax would increase prices by 1.3% by 2030 and slightly slow employment growth. Opponents say the impacts would be more pronounced.
Measure 118 is opposed by a broad spectrum of organizations and officials for a variety of reasons.
Businesses dislike the specter of new taxes.
Labor unions and politicians in both parties are worried the measure could lead to far less general fund revenue for the state — an outcome predicted by Oregon’s Legislative Revenue Office. Measure 118 supporters, meanwhile, say they believe the measure is revenue-neutral and that they would work with lawmakers to make sure it doesn’t impact the state budget.
Some local progressive groups that support the idea of the government offering regular basic income payments to ease poverty oppose the measure because it would also send payments to wealthy Oregonians.
That opposition has meant that Measure 118 supporters have received much of their financial backing from out of state. California entrepreneur Josh Jones, who made a fortune in cryptocurrency, has given the campaign $930,000 to date — including $250,000 last week.
Jones recently took to Reddit, where he hosted an “ask me anything” post about his support for Measure 118.
In a video on that post, Jones compared the tax to the tariffs the federal government slaps on imported goods. He said he wouldn’t back the idea if the new tax money was going to the state government, but sending payments directly to Oregonians intrigued him.
“Unlike some people, I think it’s OK that there are billionaires,” said Jones, making clear that he is not a billionaire himself. “I just think that it’s not OK that there are non-millionaires. I just want everybody to have a nice base level of wealth.”
Jones called his involvement in the campaign an “outside bet.”
“I just think it would be amazing if $6 billion a year got distributed to all the residents of Oregon,” he said, adding that his college roommate lives in Lake Oswego. “I like Oregon.”
