Republicans are hoping to claw back influence in the Oregon Capitol this year. But as election season heats up, the most prominent GOP groups find themselves notably short on cash.

Political committees run by House and Senate Republicans are badly trailing fundraising from previous election cycles, according to an analysis by OPB.

Evergreen PAC, the primary committee supporting Republican candidates for the Oregon House, has raised less than half this election cycle what it had at the same point in 2022 — $551,800 compared to $1.14 million as of Tuesday.

Its Senate counterpart, the Leadership Fund, is also flagging. The committee has reported raising about half of what it had at this point in 2020, when the same slate of Senate seats were up for election — $316,900 compared to $636,000.

With Oregon Democrats raising money at or above the pace of recent elections — the party has hauled in more than three times what Republicans have this cycle — it’s a scenario that might ordinarily spell doom for an already marginalized Republican party.

Enter Greg Walden.

Walden is a former high-ranking Oregon congressman who twice oversaw the GOP’s national strategy in U.S. House races. Now he’s suddenly the party’s best hope for shedding their minority status in the statehouse.

While the GOP’s official committees are coming up short, a political action committee Walden founded in 2021 has amassed a war chest no Democrat can ignore.

The committee, Bring Balance to Salem, has raised a formidable $5.8 million since early 2023, all of it earmarked for legislative races. Walden has consistently declined to discuss his initiative with OPB.

“There are a finite number of resources available,” said Cole Avery, executive director of Evergreen PAC, the House Republican campaign committee. “That’s the case wherever you go. We are thankful that that money has been invested toward helping the greater Republican effort.”

A consequential election

Republicans currently hold 25 of 60 House seats and 13 of the state’s 30 Senate seats. Losing an additional seat in each chamber this year would return the party to “super minority” status, meaning Democrats could pass virtually any policy — including new taxes — without a single Republican vote. That might be particularly important in 2025, when the Democrats plan to take up a transportation funding package virtually certain to include tax proposals.

With the help of nearly $5 million spent by Walden’s committee in 2022, Republicans won back seats in both the House and Senate. Now the former congressman has begun opening the floodgates once again.

In the last month alone, Republican candidates in some of the state’s most closely watched districts have reported receiving more than $408,000 from Walden’s PAC. That’s almost half of the $870,000 jointly raised by Republicans’ House and Senate committees since January 2023.

Walden has left few swing seats untouched, but he’s spent most heavily on districts in Astoria and Woodburn, where Republican incumbents could be in danger.

The committee is also pouring money into Bend, where the GOP is hoping to reclaim a House seat it lost in 2022 and scrambling to defend a Senate seat that looks particularly endangered. The lawmaker in that seat, longtime Republican Sen. Tim Knopp, is barred from seeking reelection after leading a legislative walkout in 2023. The voter makeup of the fast-growing district leans in Democrats’ favor.

A matter of speculation

Precisely why Republican committees are hurting for cash so far this year is a matter of speculation among Oregon politicos.

Lobbyists, consultants and campaign staff with whom OPB spoke said that new Republican leaders in the House and Senate might have failed to deliver a compelling sales pitch — particularly in the wake of a 2023 legislative walkout that is forcing some Republican senators out of office.

“I have been effective at fundraising in the past,” said Senate Minority Leader Daniel Bonham, R-The Dalles, who is leading the charge this year to defend two swing seats and flip a third. “I would love to see into the mind of a donor as to why an argument was effective in the past and it’s not today.”

Bonham noted the legislative map was redrawn in 2021, meaning the districts up for election this year aren’t identical to those Republicans targeted in 2020. That year also featured a hotly contested and expensive special election for a Salem Senate seat that is not up for grabs this time around.

And Bonham observed that business interests that might normally bankroll Republicans have been pouring money into defeating Measure 118, a proposed corporate tax hike that would give yearly checks to all Oregonians. “When our donors have to go fight a ballot measure,” he said, “that’s always rough.”

Some suggest that Walden, who served in both state legislative chambers before heading to Congress, has simply become a preferred target for donors. “People know him. People trust him. People know the team around him and are comfortable with them,” said Avery. “I do think that factors in.”

Others insist the millions Walden has raised are “additive,” and would not otherwise find their way to Republican campaigns.

“The lobby isn’t giving to Walden,” said Bryan Iverson, a Republican consultant who oversaw Senate Republicans’ campaign efforts in 2022. “It’s additional dollars.”

Iverson, whose wife, Vikki Breese-Iverson, serves in the House, was quick to point out that Bring Balance to Salem did not impact fundraising two years ago.

Walden’s donor list is largely made up of timber companies, many of whom also give directly to Republican candidates. But Nike co-founder Phil Knight is the driving force behind the committee. He has donated $6 million to Bring Balance to Salem since its inception, $4 million of that since 2023.

Knight, the state’s richest resident, has dabbled in legislative politics in the past. But prior to Walden creating the new group, much of his Oregon political giving had been directed toward races for governor.

One other theory about the lackluster fundraising: Republican donors are just unusually late to grab their checkbooks.

“Over the last two or three weeks or so a lot of the big donors that typically give seem to be tuning back in,” said Avery, the House Republican staffer, who said his committee recently held a fundraiser that collected $100,000. “I do think you’re going to start seeing a lot of money shake loose pretty soon.”

Democrats, meanwhile, have been looking on with interest.

“Fundraising is an indicator of enthusiasm,” said Oliver Muggli, who runs a committee that supports Senate Democratic candidates. “It’s interesting that the actual elected officials over there are struggling to fill their coffers.”

Tensions emerge

Whatever the case, the fundraising picture this year has made Walden’s involvement more important than ever. To some, Bring Balance to Salem is merely a glimpse into the future, when incoming limits on Oregon campaign contributions will cap what donations elected officials can accept. That’s likely to lead to massive “independent expenditure” committees that are removed from candidates.

While Walden has declined interviews, those who’ve worked with him say he has been engaged with legislative Republicans in figuring out how to spend — bringing know-how he developed after overseeing the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2014 and 2016. Walden currently runs a strategic consulting firm in Washington, D.C.

“His whole idea was: The more eyes on the problem, the more eyes around the table, the better,” said Iverson. “Literally every week [in 2022] we’d have strategy calls.”

In 2022, Bring Balance to Salem ultimately sent more than $1.4 million to the House and Senate committees to use as they saw fit. But those donations have not materialized yet this year, and the scarcity of funds has at times led to conflict.

In July, a leaked strategy memo from House Minority Leader Jeff Helfrich’s staff raised hackles in the Senate.

The memo suggested that the Senate GOP was likely to lose two seats this year, and that donors interested in limiting Democratic influence would be best served by pouring money into Evergreen PAC, the House Republican committee. According to the memo, Evergreen was seeking $6 million to defend four Republican-held seats and target five controlled by Democrats.

“Should both chambers fall to Democrat-controlled supermajorities, the business climate in Oregon would become catastrophic,” the document read.

Evergreen PAC disavowed the memo as outdated, saying it was not intended to be released. But damage had been done.

Iverson is running the reelection campaign of Sen. Dick Anderson, a Lincoln City Republican whom the memo strongly suggested was doomed to lose to Democrat Jo Beaudreau this year. He was unsparing in his assessment.

“Writing it was clearly uninformed,” Iverson said. “Putting it out was even more ill-informed … It backfires because everyone knows it’s not true.”

As of Tuesday — five weeks before the bulk of ballots begin to head out to voters — Evergreen had reported raising less than 10% of the money Republicans believe they’ll need to gain ground in the state House.

But, then, there’s always Greg Walden.