Oregon universities face choices about Pac-12

Last year the University of Southern California and the University of California, Los Angeles, announced that they were leaving the Pac-12. Last week, the University of Colorado did the same. The collegiate athletic conference was formed in 1959, but its future remains unclear. Zachary Neel, managing editor for USA Today’s Ducks Wire, joins us to discuss the options on the table now for athletics at the University of Oregon and Oregon State University.

This transcript was created by a computer and edited by a volunteer.

Dave Miller:  From the Gert Boyle Studio at OPB, this is Think Out Loud. I’m Dave Miller. Last year, the University of Southern California and UCLA announced that they’ll be leaving the PAC-12 after this season. Last week, the University of Colorado made the same announcement. So the PAC-12, which was formed in 1959 and still includes the University of Oregon and Oregon State University, is poised to become an unsustainable odd numbered PAC-9. In other words, something has to give. Perhaps the conference will gain a new member, or it could cease to exist as we know it. Zachary Neel joins us to talk about these scenarios and more. He is a managing editor for USA Today’s Ducks Wire which focuses on U of O sports. Zachary, welcome back.

Zachary Neel:  Thank you for having me. Appreciate it.

Miller:  Why are these teams leaving?

Neel: Well, as with many things in life it all boils down to money, I think, in the very end. The PAC-12 has been… I don’t wanna say “struggling”… to find the money that other conferences are finding. But you look at these TV contracts that some of the conferences, the Big-10, the Big-12, the SEC, that they’re signing with the likes of ESPN, NBC, ABC, etcetera. And these schools are getting upwards of $30, $40, $50 million per year in revenue. And the PAC-12, right now, cannot compete with that. So the PAC-12′s media rights deal is up next year and some schools, like you mentioned, USC, UCLA, Colorado more recently, they do not feel confident that the PAC-12 is going to get a new deal that will see them get as much money as they could in another conference. So they are choosing to jump ship and follow money wherever it may be.

Miller:  I had seen reports yesterday and this morning that the new PAC-12 TV deal was going to be announced today. Has it happened? I mean, is it happening right now?

Neel: So “announced” is a loose word. Yes, there was a meeting between the PAC-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff and all PAC-12 presidents and athletic directors this morning. Details of that meeting have not come out yet. There are rumors about what the deal may be, reports that it’s gonna be not with a TV partner per se like ESPN or NBC or Fox, but rather with Apple TV and be the first streaming service to get a college brand or college conference. Which, depending on who you are, you may like that. You may hate that. Most of the conference’s 12 presidents are not a fan of that. They don’t love the streaming platform idea just because it’s new and, you know, we don’t really know how that’s gonna play in college football.

So, yes, the meeting happened. No deal has been presented just yet, but that could change, while we’re on this call right now. So it’s a fluid situation.

Miller:   Is it fair to say that when we’re talking about TV deals here, we’re really talking almost exclusively about college football?

Neel: Mostly, yes. I mean, there are some other sports that drive revenue. You get men’s basketball, a little bit of women’s basketball. But you look at the Olympic sports, your gymnastics, swimming, track and field, even those are not really big revenue drivers. So when you’re talking about these contracts, yes, you’re talking about mainly football in college sports right now.

Miller:  So let’s turn to Oregon teams, starting with the U of O and their potential calculus right now. What would the reasons be for Oregon to decide to stay in, let’s say the PAC-10, let’s say another team is added. Some marquee teams are gone. Why would the U of O decide to stay?

Neel: One of the biggest reasons is because the end goal every year is to get a spot in the college football playoff. And next year, the college football playoff, which is currently at four teams that make it every year and compete for a championship, expands to 12 teams next year. And so right now, the winner of the PAC-12 each year is not guaranteed a spot in the college football playoff, no matter how good you are, no matter your record, because it’s decided by a committee. And if they think another team from the SEC is better than the champion of the PAC-12, then they’re gonna choose the SEC team.

So next year, I believe it is, it expands to 12 teams where the winner of each Power-5 conference, the champion of that conference, gets an automatic bid into the playoffs. So if Oregon stays in a PAC-12 conference that is arguably weaker, without your USCs your UCLAs, then they’ve got a better chance of getting into the playoffs. So that would be the main reason that they would end up staying. However, if it comes at a cost and they don’t get the media revenue that they could with another conference, then you kind of have to weigh your outcomes, see which is more important to you.

Miller:  Ok, so bigger fish in a now smaller pond or a pond that doesn’t have the University of Southern California in it. What’s the most likely scenario for what is, at this point, slated to become the PAC-9 for it to actually become the PAC-10? Who is the most likely addition?

Neel: I think right now you have to have your eyes on San Diego State. That gets a little bit complicated because there was a deadline that they had to meet. I believe it was less than a month ago that they had to opt out of their deal with Mountain West. They missed that deadline because they were unsure what the PAC-12 was gonna look like. So I guess they could kind of blame that on the TV revenue deals that were not put forth by that PAC-12.

So they have an exit fee to pay the Mountain West, which was at $17 million but they missed that deadline. So now it’s doubled to $34 million that they have to pay to the Mountain West conference if they want to leave to get to the PAC-12 by 2024. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible. It’s just a lot more expensive. But at this point, San Diego State is probably the most likely team. You could also look at teams like SMU, Colorado State, a few teams like that in the Mountain West. But I would have my eyes on San Diego State for sure.

Miller:  So the one scenario is San Diego State joins the Ducks and everybody else stays. The other is that the Ducks decide that they want to leave or maybe University of Washington leaves as well. What would the U of O gain by jumping ship?

Neel: They would gain a seat at the big boys table, I would say. So there’s kind of been this trend in college football over the past, I’d say almost decade, with this conference realignment that everything is kind of going towards more of an NFL style rather than college football style where there’s two big leagues. You know, in the NFL, you have the NFC and the AFC. Now it’s kind of looking like you may go from a Power-5 model, where you have the PAC-12, Big-12, SEC, ACC and Big-10, to where now you may just have the SEC, Big-10 and maybe the Big-12.

So if Oregon can get into the Big-10, the desired spot because that’s where USC is, that’s where UCLA is, it’s where a lot of Oregon’s non-conference rivals are. That would give them a seat at the big boys table, make sure that they’ve got great revenue coming in each year and it would just make sure that they’re still in the spot to be in college football.

Miller:  I mean, is it just like some kind of old man yelling, “Get off my lawn,” to complain about the end of meaningful regional rivalries in college football?

Neel: Not at all. I think that’s a very valid complaint. And I think one that a lot of people share with you. Because if this were to happen, I know we’re probably gonna mention Oregon State a little bit but if Oregon left for the Big-10 or they left for the Big-12, if they went somewhere [where] Oregon State is not as big of a brand as U of O… [OSU] is not as desired or coveted by these other conferences. So it’s likely that U of O and OSU would break up and they would not have these yearly matchups against each other. The rivalry formerly known as the “Civil War” would not be a yearly thing anymore unless they really made an effort in non-conference scheduling to make it happen. So, yeah, it’s a little bit sad and kind of frustrating to see it’s come to this point.

Miller:  I’m curious what you think about the long-term strategy here. Obviously, money rules the day in almost every aspect of our lives. And I can see why a university president would say, “If I can get $40 million versus $31 million,” or whatever, I can see how that makes sense. But in the long term, do you think fans will lose some interest, nationwide, if regional rivalries that existed for decades, just stop existing?

Neel: You know, that’s really tough to say. I think that there is a certain set of fans, probably the older generation of fans, who will be really bummed to see that. But I think that if you look at the newer younger generation of fans too, they want to see games between Oregon and Ohio State and Oregon and Michigan and USC and Ohio State, all these teams. They want to see that every weekend where we only get that maybe once a year now.

So I think it’ll probably divide the fanbase of college football a little bit more than it is right now. But you look at the NFL model, the NFL is the most popular sport in America. So I think there’s a blueprint for it to work. But it’s definitely gonna take some getting used to for everybody.

Miller:  So then where does this leave teams like Washington State or Oregon State? I mean, if, as you say, the big guys don’t want them, where does that leave them?

Neel: It leaves them in an incredibly tough spot. These are not times where I would want to be an Oregon State or Washington State fan or an alumni because it kind of looks like they are just not gonna have a seat at the table. We talk about Oregon currently being a big fish in a pond if things go on the current trajectory. And you get Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, the so-called four corner schools and the PAC-12, there’s rumors that they’re probably gonna be the next to go to the Big-12.

Then you would get Oregon, [University of] Washington, Stanford and Cal to maybe go to the Big-10. Then you’re left with Oregon State and Washington State with nowhere to go. There’s thoughts that they might merge with the Mountain West Conference so you would be playing with Boise State, Nevada, Utah State, schools like that. But then they’re kind of the oversized fish, I guess in a little bit of a medium sized pond, but a smaller pond. But no matter what the outcome is, I don’t see a positive one for Oregon State or Washington State.

Miller:  And just to be clear, going back to this question about football, that’s just one sport and clearly when you’re looking at the entirety of college athletics at a school like University of Oregon, there are a dozen more teams for men and women. All of them would have to switch over, right?

Neel: Correct.

Miller:  So, meaning lacrosse and track and field and swimming and everything would go to play Ohio or whoever, everybody has to change because of football?

Neel: Correct. That’s what complicates this more than it already is because now, this starts with USC and UCLA football. Traveling to the Midwest or the East Coast to play, that’s not that big of a deal. The football has got the money to fly the team’s charter and get them a nice hotel to do all this. But when you’ve got UCLA gymnastics who’s got an in-conference meeting against Rutgers or Michigan State, how are they gonna find the money and the revenue to make it across country to get to those in-conference meets and then have a level of comfort in staying and still be able to deal with their course work? Because these are still student athletes on top of this. And we’re starting to get into a world where, because of football, we’re treating them as just athletes.

Miller:  Zachary Neel, thanks very much for joining us.

Neel: Thank you very much.

Miller:  That’s Zachary Neel, Managing Editor for USA Today’s Ducks Wire, which is focused on University of Oregon sports.

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